Gauging whether current market positioning looks stretched or is turning, and adding an independent, price-agnostic data point to hedge timing, budget rate, and payment scheduling discussions.
Client tool
COT Positioning
Weekly CFTC Commitments of Traders positioning charted against the matching Tuesday close prices, for FX pairs, the US Dollar Index, oil, and metals.
Client access required
What it does
The Commitments of Traders (COT) report published weekly by the CFTC shows how large speculators and other reportable traders are positioned in currency, oil, and metals futures. Bastion's COT tool charts net positioning against the matching close price so finance teams can see whether market positioning looks stretched, is reversing, or is confirming the price trend, useful context alongside cash flow, policy, and payment timing when weighing hedge decisions.
Most positioning commentary charts the report against a Friday or end-of-week rate, even though the CFTC measures positioning as of the close of business Tuesday. Bastion instead plots every week's matching Tuesday close, so the price line and the position bars move on the same calendar and nothing is skewed by the extra trading days between Tuesday and Friday.
Access note: Bastion provides paid, approved access for clients, subscribers, and time-limited demo users. Newsletter access and tool permissions may be managed separately.
Track weekly net positioning against matching Tuesday close prices across FX pairs, the US Dollar Index, oil, natural gas, copper, gold, and silver, alongside a positioning-based regression fair value. The tool is informational only and does not provide trading recommendations.
A trading signal, a price prediction, or a stand-alone reason to hedge or not hedge. Positioning is one input among many market drivers and should be weighed alongside policy, cash flow, and exposure.
How clients use it
Turn weekly positioning data into hedge-ready context.
Monitor
- Follow weekly net positioning and matching Tuesday close prices across 15 CFTC-covered markets: eight FX pairs, the US Dollar Index, WTI and Brent crude, natural gas, copper, gold, and silver.
Interpret
- Compare the close price to a regression fair value derived purely from net positioning, a useful cross-check that intentionally excludes rate differentials, growth, and sentiment, so it is a data point, not a forecast. Review gross long/short splits, percent of open interest, and dollar values shown in both USD and the local currency for FX pairs.
Decide
- Aggregate the major currency futures into a US Dollar Index view for total USD positioning, or combine WTI and Brent into one oil view, to separate broad USD or oil moves from single-pair or single-grade noise before a hedge or payment-timing conversation.
Important limitations
These tools provide informational market context only. CFTC COT data, price data, regression fair-value estimates, and related metrics may be delayed, indicative, incomplete, or based on third-party or model-derived sources. The net-position regression price is a statistical estimate of fair value based on positioning alone; it excludes interest rate differentials, growth, risk sentiment, and other price drivers, and should not be treated as personalized investment advice, a price forecast, or a stand-alone instruction to trade or hedge.
Request access to COT Positioning.
Tell us which currencies, commodities, or hedge decisions you want positioning context for, and whether you need client, newsletter, or demo access.